I’ve spent most of draft season picking from the top half. It’s definitely where I feel the most comfortable given how ADP falls. There’s a natural balance attained by taking the best players who are generally available where my value-drafting style works out really well from that part of the board. Drafting from the 12 spot left me with a series of choices that I didn’t feel great about, but seem to have worked out ok. I’m going to walk through R1-10 today and then hopefully be able to do R11-30 later this week or next.
Link to the draft board: https://draft.shgn.com/nfc/public/dp/822/grid
Round 1: Trea Turner
Given ADP, it seemed like Turner or JRam would be an option here. I want to start with a balanced 5 category bat and both fit the bill. Turner has several advantages working for him, starting with his position at SS which I view as a bit weaker than the others and a bit tougher to fill using FAAB.
Round 2: Matt Olson
This was a choice between Olson and Burnes for me and I couldn’t pass up banking the huge offensive stats. I think Turner’s SB total is undersold in the projections and between him and Olson, it’s a massive start on the bats side. Taking Burnes might’ve been the better roster construction play. As I said earlier, given how ADP falls, it can be tough to build a balanced roster from this draft spot. Adding Burnes here would’ve allowed me to not feel “forced” into taking some SPs above ADP later. Going forward, this will probably be a Burnes pick for me.
Round 3: Bo Bichette
Any SP that could be considered an “ace” was off the board by this pick. I figured Framber or Webb or Peralta would still be there by my next pick, so I went with the best bat available. Part of it was knowing that taking Bichette here would allow me to have flexibility in adding some poor batting average options later.
Round 4: Framber Valdez
I think his ADP is just wrong. Putting him at pick 59 when Nola is going 10 picks earlier and Glasnow is going 15 picks earlier seems ridiculous to me. Framber is as bankable a SP as there is in the game and should be put right next to that 2nd tier of aces. Logan Webb is in the same class for me and was the other option here. Either is fine, but Framber should win more games, so I went with him.
Round 5: Blake Snell
One of my baseline strategies in 15 teamers is to get enough SPs early so that I’m not chasing it later or trying to find a lot of innings in FAAB. Streaming SPs in 15s is very tough and I’ve found I’m not good at it. I don’t love taking Snell for every reason we all know, but I’m hoping he signs with SFG this week or next and can be ready for Opening Day. If he signs with NYY, it’ll probably be a disaster, but I’ll find a way to manage. I would’ve taken Eflin, Eury, or Fried if they made it here. Luzardo was a consideration, but I don’t love taking MIA pitchers due to the division and the offense. I was basically pushed into Snell because of the Burnes choice before, so to an extent, this choice was Burnes/Torres vs Olson/Snell. I probably want the former.
Round 6: Royce Lewis
At pick 79, this isn’t just a max pick on Royce Lewis, it’s a max pick by about 10 picks for all TGFBI drafts. Maybe I should’ve just passed on him anyway, but I like this price a lot. He’s a strong upside/risk play to add to my high-stability offense. Not my typical route in a draft, but I was in position to take the opportunity, and I believe it’s worth it.
Round 7: Tanner Bibee
I looked back at my 2023 TGFBI draft. I had a strong team last year - won the league and finished 9th overall. In that draft, I started Betts, Riley, Strider, Wheeler, Seager, Framber, Doval, Wm Contreras. 3 bats, 3 SPs, 1 RP, 1 catcher. Obviously, all those players hit and hit big. It was a good thing too because I only had 4 picks the rest of the draft that had value. I say that to say this, getting the SPs early basically saved that team. I believe Bibee will have a great season. He threw 157 innings last season, so he can probably go 180IP this season if CLE lets him. Joe Musgrove went right after him and the next SP didn’t come off the board until almost 2 rounds later. It was Bibee or nothing here.
Round 8: Paul Sewald
In R7, I was looking at RPs, but with Sewald, Scott, and Diaz still on the board, I figured one of the 3 would make it back around to me. I didn’t really think through a Plan B. Slow drafts allow that luxury. Thankfully Sewald made it around the turn and I got my saves anchor. In a FAAB league (and specifically TGFBI), I don’t mind taking my chances with finding saves in-season. We’ll see if I take another RP soon.
Round 9: Cal Raleigh
By my standings, my average was looking good and my other offensive stats needed work. I want two of the top 15 or so catchers in 2 catcher leagues, so I feel like I need to get one in this range and then another within the next couple of rounds. Raleigh was a good fit because he brings a ton of power with a lower average. I can take the average with my other bats and take the HR advantage. The 2nd catcher will probably be a decent batting average option.
Round 10: Bailey Ober
Sean Murphy and Chris Bassitt were the choices here. Eventually I decided I wanted a pitcher because Snell might not start the season on time if he doesn’t sign soon. I also thought the decent catcher options would still be there in R11. Also, did I mention I like to load up on SPs in 15 teamers? Maybe I should’ve chosen Bassitt. Projections certainly think so. Ober has every contextual advantage other than “will his team win more games” so all those matchups vs ALC teams in big parks and cold weather pushed me in his direction. I’m ok with it, but this is another decision point I’ll be looking back to.
By my numbers, I have the most innings pitched and almost the fewest ABs, so I need to draft bats for a while. Hopefully, they’ll be fast OF’s because I need some SBs too. I’m also not doing great in saves, but I’m not sure if I want to put much effort toward addressing that one. You may not have noticed, but I have 0 outfielders through 10 rounds. It was definitely not intentional, but I am generally ok with waiting on outfield. I think there’s a lot of every day OFs who are balanced contributors with high floors and some upside, so I’ll be plucking as many as I can from that pool. I also think OFs are easier to find in FAAB than other positions because there are more of them. I also think I can play the lineup games with platoons and such to switch the guys in who maximize production. It’s a higher maintenance game to play, but it’s a part of the game that I’m good at, so might as well set the roster to use it.