We left part 1 of the TGFBI draft needing bats and specifically fast OF’s. I’d be lying if I didn’t have 5-10 names in mind when I found myself in that situation. Thankfully, I was able to get a good number of those options over the next few rounds. Some of these are players who I mentioned in My Guys a few days ago, but a lot are not. This was a very sharp room and many of the guys I like were snapped up well before ADP. Just to name a few, Maikel Garcia (197 vs 233 ADP), Tyler O’Neill (220 vs 248), Jackson Holliday (180 vs 203), Michael Wacha (269 vs 282), Griffin Canning (253 vs 306), and Louie Varland (261 vs 355) all went before I was expecting - most were just a could rounds, but some were well before. A few of my guys dropped and I still didn’t get them due to team context or draft circumstance. Vinnie P went 1 pick before I could get him at 191. I had no need of Tovar due to taking 2 SS’s early. I had a choice between Steven Kwan and Andrew Vaughn and decided I needed Kwan’s skillset more. I made a choice to go with a RP instead of Civale, and Gorman over Candelario for reasons I’ll discuss later. For the most part, this draft was right on brand with what I do and I’m very satisfied with how it worked out.
Link to the draft board: https://draft.shgn.com/nfc/public/dp/822/grid
Round 11: Keibert Ruiz
I left R1-10 with one catcher and knowing I wanted another one soon. Raleigh was the 7th catcher off the board and I want two of the 1st 15, so I knew it was R11/12 where it needed to happen. Murphy, Alvarez, and O’Hoppe came off the board on the way back and I was eyeing up Ruiz the whole way. I think he’s going to have the best batting average amongst this group of catchers and also could get to 20 HRs. Don’t love his offensive context obviously, but the every day PAs and his talent should result in a strong season.
Round 12: TJ Friedl
I finally took an OF. Friedl is projected for 15 HR and 20 SBs by most and that’s exactly what I needed here. I love the park and lineup, so offensive context is strong. I haven’t heard any talk of his PAs being in jeopardy, so this seems safe. Last season, he was in CF for 126 games with Stuart Fairchild getting 27 games out there. He’s shown no platoon splits, so maybe he’s a 500 PA guy again this season. If so, this pick will pay off.
Round 13: Nolan Gorman
I haven’t been on Gorman much so far. This isn’t the first time I’ve drafted Gorman, but when you’ve drafted 20+ teams, you’ve got a piece of almost everyone. For me, it has to be a pretty specific build to fit Gorman into it, primarily because he both doesn’t run and is projected for a .236 batting average. Honestly, how different is Gorman from Josh Bell who goes like 100 picks later? The answer is his upside. Gorman could be the breakout star of the STL lineup (along with Walker IMO) and be a 40 HR bat with a .260 average. My options at 2B were running out and Gorman is a guy I want to have some chips on. He filled a need of power and position, but somewhat dictated how much I’d need to push toward speed in the next few picks. This would’ve been Vinnie P if he didn’t go the pick before. I think both he and Gorman have similar projected lines but Vinnie’s got a bit more average and Gorman a bit more power. If in doubt, I take the batting average guy, but that wasn’t the option here.
Round 14: Robert Suarez
I was very split on this pick. Generally in FAAB leagues (and specifically TGFBI), waiting on saves and maybe coming out of the draft with it being a somewhat significant weakness is something I’m ok with, but being able to take the prospective closer for SDP was something I felt like I needed to do. Carlos Estevez going the pick right after this (and some chatter in our Twitter group) made me feel a bit better knowing that the other league members were looking at the same options I was, but I never feel good about taking RPs in these leagues. The choice was between Nootbar, Candelario, and Suarez. I first eliminated Candyman because his projected line (60/20/75/4/.250) is something that isn’t that hard to find later in the draft. For example, Josh Bell is projected for 70/20/70/0/.254. I get the upside argument for Candelario, but at the core, it’s a replaceable skillset. So then looking at Nootbar, my problem is that he’s never done it before. Last season, 500 PAs and a 74/14/46/11/.261 line just isn’t exciting me. I’ve got Kelenic and Siri and Jack Suwinski and Varsho and TON and maybe Bryan de la Cruz who are putting up some version of that line with varying degrees of upside in certain categories and who are all still on the board. Suarez was a scarcity pick. Only he and Estevez were the primary saves guys on the board and Suarez is a much better pitcher. I think it was the right call, but it’s probably pretty close.
Round 15: Jarred Kelenic
I’m a believer in Kevin Seitzer. He’s the best hitting coach in baseball and maybe of the last 30 years. ATL is willing to let guys run and Kelenic has been willing to do so. The lineup and park context are favorable. I think the 56/15/58/12/.238 line is short in every regard. I wanted Tyler O’Neill here and then take Kelenic in R16, but TON went 2 picks before this. When I ran my projected standings after this pick, I was hurting in batting average and stolen bases. My next pick became pretty clear to me
Round 16: Steven Kwan
I don’t love taking one-dimensional players and the good news with Kwan is that he isn’t. He’s a 3-category player. The problem is that he’s a near 0 in HR and maybe just a small deficit in RBI. I’d obviously prefer if he could put up 10-15 HR with 70 RBI, but if he did that with his .275 average and 18 SBs, he wouldn’t be going in R16 any more. Kwan isn’t a Estuary Ruiz type where it’s a hail mary to save a weak category. If Kwan goes down, replacing his 18 SBs isn’t like needing 60, so that makes me feel better about it. He’s basically guaranteed PAs and should lead off most every game, so that could be 600+ PAs pretty easily. I’ll take the batting average help for the picks that are coming up too because I had a pretty good idea of where this was headed.
Round 17: Seth Lugo
The pitching was disappearing in this draft. He was not making it back and if you look at the board, Michael Wacha went about 10 picks after this. Everyone is kinda scrambling to get their SPs pulled together and ADP doesn’t matter any more. Usually I’m looking for Lugo around pick 270, but at 252 here, I had to pull the trigger. With Lugo being SP5, I was planning on some combination of Wacha, Nestor Cortes, Louie Varland, and Taj Bradley being my SP6/7 in R19-21. All them went before my pick in R19.
Round 18: Jose Siri
I’m a bit of a sucker for Siri. He shows up and hits HRs and steals bases. And then when he comes to spring training, he talks about how he wants to hit more HRs and steal more bases. So, yeah, I’m in. He’s a massive batting average risk, but as long as Kwan does what he does, I can carry Siri. I considered taking another SP here, maybe Wacha, but Siri’s HR/SB stat line was kinda necessary at this point. Finding a 20/20 bat in R18 or later is near impossible, so I wanted to take him before it was too late.
Round 19: Reese Olson
I guess I have the Olson Twins on this team. Like I said, my SP6/7 options were all off the board by the time this came back around to me, so I had to go to Olson as a fallback option. He’s got a great pitching context with his park, opponents, and defense behind him, so hopefully the tailwind will help him out a bit. I completely believe my SP6/7 will be matchup guys regardless and Olson should have some pretty strong matchups to exploit.
Round 20: Junior Caminero
This is where I might lose some of you. I keep it between the lines for most of every draft. But occasionally, rarely I throw a wild deep ball and hope something fun happens. At pick 289, we’re well into “hope something fun happens” territory. Caminero is the type of swing that can be a difference maker in leagues if he hits and if he doesn’t, as a R20 pick, he didn’t cost me much. This is the lower end of where he goes, his ADP is around 235, so I like the gamble. I don’t love making these swings early (even though I have a few times with varying results), but if you give me the chance to gamble big on a discount late in a draft, I’m in. I don’t love possibly carrying Caminero on my bench for a few months, but I’ll take one stash in a NFBC FAAB league, so this one’s it for me. As long as Snell signs soon, my bench situation should be fine. He’s at my CI spot for now, but I realize I need to leave this draft with a better CI option.
Round 21: MJ Melendez
I still had a OF spot open and I also had some batting average to burn and needed HRs, so hello, MJ Melendez. As a Royals fan, I’m well aware of what is the MJM Experience, but I also think he’s a lock for a 20 HR season and that’s what I needed here. I also think that’s a pretty certain floor with 30 HR upside. His xStats are great and his hard hit stats are better. It could come together for MJM and he put up a 30/10 season where his .250 batting average doesn’t kill you. If he’s hopeless again, the waiver wire calls and there’s plenty of OF’s I’ve got my eye on already for his OF5 spot.
Round 22: Josh Bell
I was hoping Bell would make it back to me when I picked MJM. The power bats are coming off the board quickly at this point and are pretty non-existent after Bell. I’ll come back and find some steals in the next few picks and in the reserve rounds, but getting a solid, consistent bat that can slide into my CI spot until Caminero shows up really fit my build
Round 23: ??????????
We haven’t gotten this far yet. I honestly start drafting like it’s the “reserve rounds” from about R20 on. Really anyone after R15 can end up on the waiver wire pretty quickly if things aren’t working out. My choices here vary widely. From a numbers standpoint, I need some innings probably, but in looking at my targets list, I don’t have a lot of SPs lined up soon. Looking over my queue, I’ve got speed options, power options, IF and OF; I’ve got young SPs and older SPs. It’s quite the list; I’ve got 38 players in my queue and 8 picks left to make.
I’ll come back with my R23 and reserve picks in a later post. My strategy late in these earlier FAAB leagues is to take a bunch of guys who will either be strong contributors (everyday lineup or starting rotation) or in the minors on Opening Day. I don’t want to draft some platoon bench guys who will always be usable but never a difference maker. We’ll get those off the wire throughout the season. A month ago, I was taking someone like Sal Frelick in this spot where he could get a starting spot and a fulltime job. Now that it looks like he has it, his ADP has moved up 100 picks. Hopefully I can find a bench full of guys that hit and I have a hard time dropping a month from now.