MLB Preview - NLDS (LAD/SFG)
The Series: LAD -161 vs SFG +137
The Play: This series price opened up with SFG +165 which I hopped on immediately because I make this closer to the +140 it’s at now. I also like SFG’s chances to take down Game 1 (it’s basically 50/50). If they do, I’ll have options for coming back on LAD. I think the line is fair as it stands now.
The Breakdown:
Run Scoring: These offenses are very similar. They’re both a little worse vs LHP; they’re both generally K resistant and BB heavy. They’re both very flyball heavy and have bench depth to get good matchups. LAD probably has the 5 best bats in the series with Seager, Betts, Turner, Turner, and Smith, but SFG has a ton of really good bats and no bad bat amongst their regulars. LAD lost a lot with Muncy out and SFG probably has the depth/platoon advantage here. There’s a pretty high degree of Devil Magic happening with SFG finding ways to win. There’s a bit of disconnect here between how these teams are projected to play and how they’ve actually played. If both play to their projections, this is LAD all the way, but that hasn’t been this season. This season, the SFG bats have outperformed the projections and haven’t waivered. LAD has been somewhat disappointing offensively. I don’t really see a predictable edge here.
Run Prevention: I think LAD has a pretty decent edge with the arms. Max, Buehler, and Urias are 3 of the best in the game. Gausman, Desclafani, and Webb are nice but I have them rated well below the LAD arms. The pens are both strong, but LAD is marginally better, possibly more than marginally. The defenses are mostly even, but a bit of an edge to SFG. Not enough to really move anything for me.
Managers: Both these guys are good. I see no difference to be drawn here.
Umpires: This is a really odd crew. This series has 3 of the worst 20% of umpires and 3 of the best 20%. It has Doug Eddings, the ump who calls more balls strikes than anyone else and Carlos Torres who is 2nd in calling more strikes balls, and it has pat hoberg who is traditionally the best ball/strike umpire in the game. Here’s the rundown:
Game 1: Torres - calls a ton of strikes balls. (over ump)
Game 2: Hernandez - calls a decent amount of balls strikes (under ump)
Game 3: Barrett - calls more balls strikes than Hernandez (under ump)
Game 4: Hoberg - generally thought of as the best umpire in the game.
Game 5: Eddings - calls anything that makes it to the catcher in the air a strike. Basically a little league zone.
There might some series value on LAD if SFG wins game one, but SFG might just win this series. I won’t be shocked by any outcome in this one. I’m really looking forward to some late nights watching west coast ball.