MLB Preview - NLDS (ATL/MIL)
The Series: ATL +125 vs MIL -145
The Play: None. yet.
The Breakdown:
Run Scoring: ATL has a major advantage here. ATL’s bats are just better. They hit more HRs, they walk more, and the strikeout rates are pretty similar. I really can’t see any area in which MIL is better than ATL offensively.
Run Prevention: Significant advantage for MIL here, but that advantage is somewhat muted by Peralta being limited and Williams/Cousins being injured. If you believe in Eric Lauer (and I can’t blame you if you do), then MIL is pretty well stacked with their arms. The only hesitations I have with MIL’s SP is that Burnes and Woodruff are both RH and ATL has hit RHP pretty well this season. If ATL can get to Burnes and Woodruff, it all falls apart for MIL. They can’t play from behind with this offense and the pen only goes 2 deep at best. I’m in on Morton, Fried, and Anderson, especially against this offense. I think those ATL SPs can hold MIL to under 3 runs when they’re pitching. The ATL pen is good enough to get by, but definitely not a strength. If they gotta go to the pen before the 6th, things could get out of hand. MIL was rated excellently defensively, but most of that appears to be based in their catchers and I don’t think that’ll matter much in this series. Having Jackie Bradley Jr in the OF matters, but overall, I don’t think the parks are really demanding defensively and ATL defense is good enough to not be a liability.
Managers: It’s possible this really matters. Counsell is really good and Snitker is not. It’s going to be really frustrating if ATL is the better team here but Snitker costs them in the small decisions.
Umpires: None of the guys assigned matter.
I see a bit of value in ATL now, but I’m already taking ATL in Game 1, so I don’t want to double up here. If they lose G1, then I’m looking for a +250 on ATL to win the series at that point to get involved as long as nothing really changes my opinions throughout G1.