MLB Preview - 9/14
Well, that’s a decent run I got going now. It may all be randomness. Let’s look at the slate and see what’s there.
The Results:
STL ML -105 - 2u - W
BOS ML -122 - L
ARI/LAD o8 -107 - L
SFG ML -104 - W
TBR ML +114 - L
MIA ML -104 - W
Yesterday: 3-3-0 +0.71u
YTD: 495-531-20 -33.68u, ROI: -2.99%
The Picks:
CLE/MIN u6.5 +105
CLE ML +111
NYM -1.5 +134
CIN/PIT f5 u4.5 -118
BOS ML -134
SFG ML -154
OAK/KCR u9 -104
The Games:
NYY (Cole) -315 @ BAL (Wells) +283 t9 - I lean under here, but there’s no telling how quickly BAL will give up runs here. This could be 7-0 after two or after 9. or 12-2 after 9. NYY minus anything might be good though.
MIL (Peralta) -199 @ DET (Peralta) +183 t9 - I see nothing here. This was right on my number. Occasionally I mention fantasy baseball plays. With Rowdy Tellez out and MIL coasting to a division title, Dan Vogelbach might see a ton of time over the next 3 weeks. Also, the Eric Lauer experience isn’t stopping and he has matchups vs CHC and NYM on deck.
OAK (Montas) -160 @ KCR (Kowar) +146 t9 - I like both these arms and both seem undervalued by this line. I also think both teams are motivated enough to throw decent arms out of the pen if it’s close, so there isn’t real blow-up potential here.
CLE (McKenzie) +111 @ MIN (Ryan) -121 t6.5 - I didn’t understand this line at all. I like both arms and McKenzie has been legitimately great lately. In his last 6 starts since 8/1, he has a 1.80 ERA (2.14 FIP) and he’s done it against TOR, OAK, DET, KCR, MIN, and LAA. Not exactly PIT and CHC every game. I also don’t see how MIN is better than CLE. Sure, the CLE bats can go cold, but it’s not like MIN’s bats are incredible.
BOS (Eovaldi) -134 @ SEA (Anderson) +124 t8 - I might be backing BOS in every game this series if these are the prices to expect. I think BOS is much better than SEA. Eovaldi is much better than Anderson, the BOS pen is better than the SEA pen, and the BOS bats are better than the SEA bats.
HOU (Greinke) -209 @ TEX (Lyles) +191 t9 - This was right on my number. TEX is pretty unplayable right now, but this might be an over play if I had to play it.
TBR (Rasmussen) +119 @ TOR (Berrios) -129 t9 - I want TBR here, but I’m not getting in front of this TOR offense. Maybe they come back down to earth, but there were no signs of it tonight.
COL (Gray) +156 @ ATL (Toussaint) -170 t9 - I didn’t see an angle on this game at all. Gray’s been decent, Touki has not. I don’t see why I’d want to have a play here.
ARI (Weaver) +215 @ LAD (Gonsolin) -237 t8.5 - Nothing for me here. LAD was playing Lux in LF tonight for some reason. I guess Chris Taylor can’t play every night, but if LAD is going to be putting Lux out there, that hurts this offense and defense pretty significantly. I don’t know if they’re an outright fade, but they’re definitely less of a play-on if they’re fielding a B lineup.
STL (Woodford) +145 @ NYM (Stroman) -157 t8 - STL can’t hit RHP (at least not as well as they hit LHP) and I like Stroman to be effective. NYM can hit even though at times they don’t and Woodford and 4 innings of the STL pen seems like a good spot for them to put up a crooked number.
CHC (Sampson) +178 @ PHI (Gibson) -194 t9 - I don’t want anything to do with this game. Both teams are prone to giving up big innings and both can hit a bit; both can also be shut down pretty consistently, so I can’t get anywhere with this one.
CIN (Miley) -159 @ PIT (Peters) +145 t8.5 - I like Miley and I hate the CIN bats vs LHP. Peters might not qualify as good enough to shut down even a team that can’t hit LHP, but I think Miley can hold down PIT for at least 5 and hopefully Peters can keep CIN below 4. I find myself starting more and more PIT players for some reason. In my NL only league, I’ve got Tsutsugo, Alford, and Newman all rostered this week. They all play consistently and there aren’t a ton of places to find 20 ABs a week.
SDP (Arrieta) +142 @ SFG (Desclafani) -154 t8.5 - This line acts like Arrieta is good. Or that SFG is only starting half an offense. Or only getting 2 outs per inning. Or playing 7 innings to SDP’s 9. I just don’t understand it. Give me SFG and I’m not looking back.