MLB Preview - 4/9
That CHC loss, now that was something. 2.22 unit change of fortune.
The pitchers keep biting the dust. Silseth and Framber (if he’s actually down) were somewhat targets of mine this season and I have them on 8 and 6 teams, respectively, so there was a good bit of scrambling today to get rosters lined out. People will argue this is why you don’t invest in starting pitching in drafts, but I’d argue the opposite. This is why you can never really have enough starting pitching. Today, in those leagues, I was able to switch in Seth Lugo and Louis Varland who I had benched previously due to their matchups. If I had drafted less starting pitching, my options would only be worse and the options on the wire in that league are guys like Maeda, Schmidt, Paddack and Ashcraft. My secondary SPs would be worse than Gausman or Bibee and on my team where I lost Strider, I still have Yamamoto and Skubal behind him on that team. My goal in any draft is to leave without a Single Point of Failure. Avoiding that SPF is what separates teams that are resilient against injury and those that seem totally hopeless 10 games into the season.
The Results:
CHC ML +122 - L
TBR ML -137 - L
PHI ML +101 - W
LAD ML -136 - W
SEA ML +106 - L
Yesterday: 2-3-0 -1.36u
YTD: 18-19-0 -2.09u, ROI: -4.99%
The Picks:
DET ML +116
HOU ML -120
The Games:
DET (Mize) +113 @ PIT (Perez) -123 t8.5 - I think DET is a bit better than they’ve played so far and PIT is a bit worse. My numbers make DET a favorite here. I’m willing to agree with it.
BAL (Burnes) -124 @ BOS (Bello) +114 t8.5 - I thought I’d be on BAL here, but the numbers were right on this line. We’re going to find out a bit more about Bello in this spot. He’s gotten bad results and deserved them so far. If he’s going to be a guy, he needs to start stacking some at least decent to good starts together.
CHW (Soroka) +178 @ CLE (Allen) -195 t8.5 - The numbers want me on CHW here, but I haven’t adjusted them for Eloy and Robert being out yet. The CHW offense is a full on auto-fade and I’m glad I’ve loaded up on AL Central starting pitching this season. It’s a truly horrible offense.
MIL (Ross) +133 @ CIN (Montas) -145 t9.5 - The over is the only play I’d advocate for here and even at that, the numbers don’t support it. GABP is death for middling SPs and that’s what we’re dealing with here. Today was a 10-8 game and tomorrow might be more of the same.
MIA (Puk) +168 @ NYY (Rodon) -184 t8 - I downgraded Puk in my ratings. It’s a bit early to do so, but he’s been bad from every perspective. I like Rodon here for DFS purposes and NYY -1.5 is the only way I’d play it, but I don’t love doing that on home teams.
SEA (Kirby) +101 @ TOR (Bassitt) -111 t8 - Castillo was horrible again. I’m not sure what’s going on with him, but I’ll be trying to find an article or two that’s digging into his start to the season. He’s been a slow starter before, but this is starting to be concerning. SEA is the only way I’d play this. Bassitt has been looking a lot like Kyle Hendricks thus far and if that continues, it’ll be a long season for Bassitt.
NYM (Houser) +166 @ ATL (Rlopez) -182 t10 - This seems like another over game to me, but I still don’t trust myself with totals, especially ones the numbers don’t support. NYM rested their better RPs tonight and still got the W so they’re set up well for the series win. I don’t love Lopez as he seems to still not have the stamina for more than 4-5 innings. ATL will probably need to throw some RPs here and I don’t want to get involved in that.
HOU (Javier) -120 @ KCR (Ragans) +110 t8.5 - I like backing KCR against middling teams, but against the upper level of MLB, I think they’ll have problems winning games. Similarly, HOU might struggle against the top tier teams, but against the teams not in their tier, I expect they’ll beat up on them.
LAD (Glasnow) -167 @ MIN (Varland) +153 t8.5 - This was right on my number. I’m already rolling the dice on Varland in a couple leagues, I don’t want to need him any more than I do now. If I had to play it, it’d definitely be MIN ML, but there’s no advantage there IMO.
PHI (Wheeler) -125 @ STL (Gray) +115 t7.5 - I think this is a PHI ML spot, but I don’t have numbers to support it or any other reason other than Gray will go 4 innings and the STL pen isn’t made to handle that.
ARI (Kelly) -180 @ COL (Quantrill) +165 t11.5 - Another COL game that I can’t find a way into. ARI should win this. Maybe fading Quantrill is the way to go. I don’t have player props available overnight, but tomorrow, I could take some “Quantrill hits over” or “Quantrill runs over.” Both seem pretty good.
TBR (Civale) -116 @ LAA (Sandoval) +106 t8.5 - I couldn’t believe TBR wasn’t a play here, but the numbers aren’t too far off. My pitching numbers haven’t really caught up to Civale, but I think the gap between him and Sandoval is much wider than these numbers would suggest. I think I’m right and my numbers and the books are wrong. We’ll see how it works out.
WSN (JsGray) +151 @ SFG (Harrison) -165 t8 - I was right on WSN ML tonight and it feels right again here. I’m not playing it again though because I don’t think Josiah Gray is at all good and if it turns into a bullpen game, I don’t want the WSN side of that.