MLB Preview - 4/8
The streaks are part of MLB betting. I’ve been doing this somewhat seriously for 4 years and every season my unit chart looks like a roller coaster. I don’t think there’s a rhyme or reason to it really. Sometimes plays are hitting and at others they’re not and I believe in the long run, I’ll end up ahead. So we won 5 in a row and 8 of 10 and now have lost 8 of 10. I’ve got another 5 plays for tomorrow, so hopefully this is the start of another win streak.
The Results:
LAD ML -103 - L
CIN ML -111 - L
SEA ML +110 - L
BOS ML -109 - W
Yesterday: 1-3-0 -2.14u
YTD: 16-16-0 -0.73u, ROI: -2.02%
The Picks:
CHC ML +122
TBR ML -137
PHI ML +101
LAD ML -136
SEA ML +106
The Games:
MIA (Luzardo) +142 @ NYY (Cortes) -155 t8 - I wanted MIA here because I want to be on Luzardo and against Nestor, but the numbers didn’t support it and I’m fine with that I guess. Vegas seems to think that Cortes is definitely better than Luzardo and I don’t see how that’s possible. If I had to put another play on the card, MIA ML would be it.
MIL (Ashby) +102 @ CIN (Ashcraft) -112 t9.5 - Ashby has not looked good and his stuff hasn’t been MLB quality. Ashcraft isn’t really good either and both of them are pitching at CIN. Given that, this will probably be a 2-1 game after 7, but it feels like a lot of runs will be scored here.
DET (Olson) +110 @ PIT (Mkeller) -120 t8.5 - I like Reese Olson more than I should probably and I like this spot for him. I don’t start making adjustments on pitcher rankings until after a few starts. I’m hoping Olson makes a move forward.
SEA (Castillo) +106 @ TOR (Berrios) -116 t8.5 - I went 0-2 betting on SEA last week. I’m not sure I’m any higher on them than I should be but I’ve got my eye on them. More important than the bets you do make is the bets you don’t and another loss or two on SEA and I’ll need to lay off them a while and reassess their ratings.
NYM (Teheran) +191 @ ATL (Morton) -212 t9.5 - The ATL MLs are beginning to look like LAD MLs. It’s an unplayable number in both directions. It looks like Seitzer is doing his thing with Jarred Kelenic. I was buying coming into the season, his very poor spring training took me off him a bit, and now, he’s hitting like he’s a .300 hitter. No power yet, but I think he’s building up to it and could be a very good player this season.
LAD (Paxton) -136 @ MIN (Ober) +125 t8.5 - I’m not sure why this line is what it is. I see Paxton and Ober as being nearly equivalent pitchers, the LAD offense is much better than MIN and I have the pen as better too. Obviously, I took a loser on LAD too today, so maybe I have too much faith in them as well.
PHI (Turnbull) +101 @ STL (Mikolas) -111 t9 - Turnbull was a huge target for me in FAAB this week. With the STL/PIT two-start week, there’s opportunity here for him to put together a big week and when he’s been healthy, he’s been good. It’s just been a while since we’ve seen it as he’s thrown 30 innings in the last 2 seasons. He threw 5 shutout in the first outing, I’m hoping the next 2 are something similar. I think PHI is the better team in every way.
HOU (Valdez) -139 @ TEX (Heaney) +128 t10 - I’m really close on a HOU ML play, but it’s not enough edge to play it. If HOU gets under -135, I’d be on it. Framber has struggled a bit and the HOU offense hasn’t hit on all cylinders yet. It doesn’t have me looking to pay up any more than I have to for HOU.
ARI (Gallen) -170 @ COL (Freeland) +156 t11 - Yeah, I’m not going to be involved in many COL games this season. It’s going to be tough to find a reason to back them and I can’t imagine their opponents will ever be reasonably priced. There’s nothing here for me.
TBR (Eflin) -137 @ LAA (TAnderson) +126 t8.5 - It seems like there’s a downgrade of TBR’s offense here and possibly an upgrade to either LAA’s offense or Tyler Anderson. I don’t really see why any of that would be appropriate, so it seems like TBR should be closer to -200. I’ll play them here.
CHC (Assad) +122 @ SDP (Darvish) -133 t8 - I might be a bit higher on Assad and lower on Darvish than most. Even at that, I have the CHC offense as being decently better than SDP’s. SDP has a little edge in with the SPs, but other than that, I don’t see where they’re better. I’ll take the dog.
WSN (Williams) +202 @ SFG (Snell) -225 t8 - I have no doubt that WSN is the right side here, but I’m not quite comfortable with the +200 underdog yet. If you’re looking for the big payday, the WSN/MIA ML parlay would be it.