MLB Preview - 4/19
Got got more than 10% into the season this week and that’s when I start factoring in some of this year’s results into the model. Hopefully this will start to pull the model in directions that will lead to better outcomes. It stopped liking SEA and MIN for starters, so at least it can’t be all bad.
The Results:
TEX ML +131 - W
TOR ML +100 - L
CIN ML +120 - L
Yesterday: 1-2-0 -0.69u
YTD: 22-26-0 -5.38u, ROI: -9.95%
The Picks:
MIL ML -125
ARI ML +120
The Games:
CHW (Crochet) +145 @ PHI (Turnbull) -158 t8 - The model likes PHI and I do too but laying -158 on a favorite isn’t my cup of tea. I’ll be looking for a PHI/HOU parlay I think, but they don’t let me parlay the overnights, so we might get back to it tomorrow. I believe in Turnbull; Crochet gets a big test here; CHW will find a way to lose even if they’re close/ahead somewhat late.
HOU (Verlander) -166 @ WSN (Gore) +152 t8.5 - WSN is quickly becoming one of the surprise teams of 2024 and Gore one of the surprise pitchers. Both the team and pitcher not being abjectly horrible is beating expectations though and they should come back to earth a bit vs HOU this week. Also, HOU should start playing better and winning more games soon. Seems like a good buy low/sell high spot.
OAK (Boyle) +155 @ CLE (McKenzie) -169 t8 - If I were doing this by feel, this is a spot to back OAK, but I’m not pushing it yet. The model likes CLE and under, but I think OAK and over might be the way to play. McKenzie is hurt and Boyle loses the zone at times. CLE and OAK should be able to take advantage of each. I’m not going to play anything here, but it’s a feel play if I were feeling it.
TEX (Heaney) +177 @ ATL (Sale) -194 t9.5 - I was surprised that TEX wasn’t a play, but their offensive performance vs LHP this season has dragged their rating down a bit. I’m fine with having another reason to not back Andrew Heaney. I don’t love moving numbers on less than 150 PAs, but there’s no cost to not playing a game.
BAL (Kremer) -134 @ KCR (Marsh) +123 t9 - The model made BAL -150, so it’s close enough to not play. Kremer hasn’t been good, Wells wasn’t good and is now hurt, and Cole Irvin has been worse than both. Povich can’t be far away and I’d think a trade for a MIA SP can’t be too far off. Maybe Luzardo?
DET (Flaherty) +130 @ MIN (Ryan) -142 t8 - This was right on the model’s number, so I have no play here. Neither team has been hitting and that’s a bit of an understatement. In a couple weeks, their numbers will make them a total fade. Maybe there’s a turnaround coming here and I tend to believe there is, but they look hopeless now.
MIL (Peralta) -124 @ STL (Gibson) +114 t8 - The model has MIL -165 here, so it’s a definite play. MIL’s offensive numbers this season definitely pushed them into a play here. I’m ok with that adjustment, they’ve had several players step up a level so far with Ortiz and Turang hitting and Adames and Contreras off to a hot start. Gibson has been a special kind of horrible both walking batters and giving up HRs. MIL should get a couple off him tomorrow if he can stay in the game long enough.
TOR (Yrodriguez) +100 @ SDP (Waldron) -110 t8.5 - I’m not completely sure what either of these arms are yet. Both are possibly good but neither has really put it together yet. I’m taking a “buy now and wait and see” approach in fantasy leagues and picking them up where I can just in case they turn into solid MLB contributors. Both might be nothing in a month. Could be high ROI plays in deep formats though.
NYM (Manaea) +175 @ LAD (Yamamoto) -192 t8.5 - This was on the model’s number, so no reason to get involved. Vegas seems to be down on Manaea a bit more than I am. There might be opportunities later this season to back Manaea against lesser opponents.
ARI (Montgomery) +120 @ SFG (Snell) -130 t8 - I don’t love this because it’s Montgomery’s first start back, but the model makes ARI a -160 favorite, so I couldn’t pass it up. ARI has had the 2nd most PAs vs LHP in MLB and has had the best outcomes of teams with more than 150PAs. Snell has been pretty rough so far and it wouldn’t shock me to see it continue here. ARI got to rest the good half of the pen tonight. I like the play on ARI.
SEA (Hancock) -125 @ COL (Hudson) +115 t11.5 - If I were playing this by feel, this would be an over play. Hancock appears to be very hittable and pitching at COL could be horrible for him. Hudson should get shelled. Maybe this is 3-1 after 7, but it feels like an under. The model doesn’t agree as both these teams have had horrific offensive results thus far that are pulling down the projection. I also don’t like playing the first game at Coors on the over. Give the teams a game to adjust and then back the overs.