MLB Preview - 4/17
Usually I do the write up after I’ve made my picks, today, I’ll do the picks as well go. I’ll reverse the format to hopefully reverse the fortune.
The Games:
PIT (Falter) +123 @ NYM (Severino) -134 t8.5 - This is what I’m calling the “Skenes Spot” in the rotation. Falter is probably already on borrowed time. This line is right as it stands, but if Skenes were in this spot, PIT would be -120, maybe better. PIT could choose to start acting like a major league franchise.
TEX (Dunning) +131 @ DET (Skubal) -143 t7.5 - I’m not going to quit TEX yet and I’m fine with backing Dunning against DET as a dog. I also don’t mind fading Skubal to an extent. The model completely agrees. This is TEX all the way.
ATL (Fried) -135 @ HOU (France) +124 t9.5 - I want ATL here, but the numbers don’t agree. Fried might be hurt too, so I’m not jumping on backing him. France has been really shaky too. If I had to play it, it’d be the over I think, but I’m not playing it.
NYY (Stroman) -110 @ TOR (Gausman) +100 t8.5 - I’m going to do what we do in these spots and trust the numbers and preseason projections. You gotta believe in Gausman a bit here, but I thin kit has to be the side. The numbers make TOR -135, but that’s assuming a 100% Gausman. I think we get enough from him here and I don’t mind fading Stroman.
STL (Matz) -150 @ OAK (Blackburn) +138 t8 - This number was right on per the model. I believe it. Masyn Winn doesn’t seem to be getting as much hype as he should be for the good start he’s off to. Between his bat and the high-level defense, he’s been better than advertised. I’ve got plenty of Gorman and Walker and even Donovan, but Winn might be the real deal.
CHC (Wicks) +107 @ ARI (Pfaadt) -117 t9.5 - As a fully verified member of the Ben Brown fan club, I gotta be rooting for ARI to hang some runs on Wicks. I’m not sure what CHC is going to do with the rotation with Taillon and Steele coming back, but between those two, Ben Brown, Imanaga, and Assad, there’s a decent rotation there. This game was right on my number. It’s a pass.
CIN (Aabbott) +120 @ SEA (Bmiller) -130 t8 - Oh, we get a chance to fade SEA? The model likes CIN ML here. I want to find a way to reverse my SEA luck, and here we are. I like Abbott on the road. I like the CIN bats better than SEA’s. I like all of this for the CIN side.
COL (Feltner) +190 @ PHI (Csanchez) -210 t8 - Thankfully, this was lined on my number. Getting involved in any COL game is complicated and in this one, I’d want to back Sanchez if at all possible and at least there’s no value on it. Sanchez is on his way to a full break out season and I’m hoping there’s some spots to back him in the coming months.
LAA (Detmers) +118 @ TBR (Littell) -128 t8 - This game is on the number too, so no play here. My Littell, Lugo, Detmers, Javier team is off to a killer start. The jackpot method to playing fantasy baseball is to draft all bats for 6 rounds and then alternate bats and arms for the next 24 rounds. if you can hit on the right arms after R6, then you can build a nearly unbeatable team with that hitter base. My problem has been that when I don’t hit on the arms, it’s a catastrophe. Getting an early arm is a conservative strategy, but one that allows good to great players to make up the difference in talent through the wire throughout the season. Finding the Littell and Detmer types is how you win leagues.
CLE (Lively) +124 @ BOS (Houck) -135 t9 - Once again, the model wants us to fade CLE, but I can’t find it in me to do it. A subscriber posted a comment noting that when I say “CLE is bad” it runs contrary to their mlb-best run differential. First off, KCR has the best run differential in MLB. Secondly, CLE does appear to be better than I expected, but I give it a month before I start adjusting my numbers. I’ll lay off teams once I get a sniff the projections might’ve been wrong, but I won’t start adjusting just yet. Maybe CLE was a .695 OPS offense last year and a .735 offense this year and maybe they’ll keep hitting .810 with RISP but I’m not going to adjust up to it just yet. The numbers make this BOS’s game, but I can’t get there.
The Picks:
TEX ML +131
TOR ML +100
CIN ML +120
The Results:
BOS ML -127 - L
Yesterday: 0-1-0 -1.27u
YTD: 21-24-0 -4.69u, ROI: -9.18%