MLB Preview - 4/12
I’m not great at fantasy baseball yet. My primary problem is I don’t know which free agents to go after and which aren’t relevant. I’ve basically passed on Jared Jones and Cody Bradford and Spencer Turnbull and Alec Marsh in free agency and all of those might not be strong performers, but they’re all probably upgrades on my Kyle Gibson or JP France. Part of it is that I just need to start cycling guys through and hope one of them hits. Another part is that I need to be more aggressive in moving on players that could help. There’s a degree of certainty that I feel like I need to put in the bids I’ll need to win these players in FAAB. I either need to get better at identifying them earlier so they’re cheaper in FAAB or get more certain about who the players are that matter. That’s what’ll dictate my success this season.
The Results:
None (MIN/DET got PPD)
The Picks:
MIN ML +112 - 1.5u
TEX ML +121
PHI/ATL ML Parlay +160
The Games:
PIT (Falter) +143 @ PHI (Csanchez) -156 t9 - The model puts this closer to -200, so that puts my eye on PHI. I like fading Falter and backing Sanchez. I like where the PHI offense and pen are at in comparison to PIT. I don’t love laying the number here, so the parlay was the way to go.
MIN (Lopez) +112 @ DET (Skubal) -122 t7 - Same logic as last night, just a day later. MIN’s the better team with the better SP but is somehow lined a dog. I’ll take the dog.
COL (Feltner) +214 @ TOR (Gausman) -240 t8 - Once again, I want no part of these COL games. I could only take COL ML and I’m not taking COL ML.
ATL (Fried) -169 @ MIA (Rogers) +155 t8.5 - I understand if there’s hesitancy in backing Fried, but I think that’s giving us a discount on ATL here. ATL has crushed LHP the last few seasons and that’s held true through the beginning of this one as well. The MIA pen has also been horrible so there should be several outs here to hit ATL ML.
NYY (Schmidt) -137 @ CLE (Carrasco) +126 t9 - The model likes CLE ML a bit here, but I think it’s because Carrasco’s rating is a bit too high. These ratings are slow to move and his 2022 performance over 150 innings weighs in a decent bit here. I don’t want any part of CLE.
KCR (Wacha) +112 @ NYM (Severino) -122 t8 - If you’re going to ride momentum, KCR and their 7 game win streak is the side. The model shows no advantage on this number, so I don’t see a reason to get involved.
CIN (Aabbott) -165 @ CHW (Flexen) +151 t9 - Pretty ugly pitching matchup here, although Abbott has his believers. The CHW lineup has thinned down considerably already and they should have trouble scoring consistently. The CIN lineup isn’t raking, but they’ll put up 4-6 runs on CHW probably. I don’t see a reason to get involved here.
TEX (Dunning) +121 @ HOU (France) -132 t9.5 - I think Dunning is a bit underrated and France overrated. The model agrees. I also think the TEX lineup is what people think HOU’s is. The TEX pen is trouble, but I still think they take this.
STL (Matz) +110 @ ARI (Pfaadt) -120 t9 - We should learn a bit more about Matz here. I’d really like him to be a viable every day MLB starter for fantasy purposes, but I’m not sure he’s that guy at this point. If he is, I’ll be backing him at times moving forward. Otherwise, he’s a full fade.
CHC (Wicks) +104 @ SEA (BoMiller) -114 t8 - The model was right on this, so there’s no need to get on SEA again. If Wicks can pull off a good start here, he might be fantasy viable going forward.
WSN (Jirvin) +115 @ OAK (Blackburn) -125 t8 - The model actually likes WSN here, so bet on WSN to win if you want, but I’m not betting on those really bad teams to win.
SDP (King) +171 @ LAD (Yamamoto) -187 t8.5 - This was right on the model’s number. If I had to play it, I’d definitely be on SDP. The model doesn’t see value there so I don’t need to get involved.