MLB Preview - 10/9
I think the ATL ML was probably the right play. A dog in a tie game into the 7th feels like the right side. ATL had their opportunities. That HOU ML was quite the thing. Up 2-1 entering t5, Valdez gave up a hit off Correa’s glove, and got a line out from Engel. Now Tim Anderson is coming up for the 3rd time, 1 on, 1 out. Dusty leaves him in. 2 batters and 2 hits later, Frambers walking off the mound in a tied game. Yimi Garcia allows 2 more and now it’s 5-2. But then HOU gets 3 in bottom 5 when LaRussa leaves in Giolito for the 3rd time through and he gets shelled too. These managers, man, they don’t get it. BOS/TBR was obviously the wrong side and LAD is pending. Let’s talk take a look at the NL Game 2’s.
The Results:
ATL ML +127 - L
HOU ML f5 -113 - P
BOS/TBR f5 u4 -119 - L
LAD ML -112 - Pending
The Game: ATL (Fried) +111 @ MIL (Woodruff) -121 t7
The Play: ATL/MIL f5 u4 -117 (I put these plays out on twitter before I do the write-ups because I want to grab the line before it starts moving. This number is now up to -129 which is a pretty big difference)
The Side: There’s a chance I end up on ATL here. I didn’t bet it initially because I figured the line might move 20 cents or more making them a bigger dog by the time this game starts. The line today moved that direction, so I’d think this one would too. I’m hoping it gets over +120, maybe up to +130 or more like today’s did. Fried has been fantastic in the 2h and I think he really found something. I really think both managers won’t allow their pitchers to get into the lineup the 3rd time. Today’s results - Burnes out at 91 pitches, Morton getting hit the 3rd time through - indicate that might be the case, hopefully Snitker learned his lesson. The MIL lineup leans LH - Adames, Urias, and Avisail are the only RH regulars. I think tomorrow plays out very similarly to today. Not a lot of action early and then the 3rd time through either the starters get hit or the shaky pens get involved (Hopefully that’ll be in the 6th). Given the pens involved, I think that basically turns this into a 50/50 game. This MIL team can’t hit and are just hoping for a luckbox HR. ATL should be able to string together some hits. I think I’ll feel pretty good about having them as a dog late in this game.
The Total: I think the starters can do their job here. The pens, I’m not sold on. I’ll make a play on the first 5 being low scoring again and not sweat the bullpen decisions.
Exact Prediction: These haven’t gone great, but my numbers like ATL 4-3, so I’ll go with that.
The Game: LAD (Urias) -108 @ SFG (Gausman) +100 t7.5
The Play: LAD/SFG f5 u4 -122
The Side: I made this game LAD -115 and that seems right to me. The slight edge to LAD isn’t enough for me to back it, but maybe the SFG money shows up to move it. The LAD offense has really disappointed. They aren’t a wrecking machine right now at all. They just aren’t hitting the ball hard consistently. I’d love to take more LAD MLs at these prices, but without Muncy they might not have a huge edge. Maybe I’m just overstating it based on the last 14 innings of LAD baseball.
The Total: The numbers put this at 7.7. Given the bullpen usage, that’s probably more like 7.2 or so, so I lean under. I like the first 5 under since I think the starters should be good the first two times through. I don’t mind either pen, but I know both these starters should be good.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter:
Urias faced SFG 4x in the regular season. One was a blowup with 6ER and in the other 3, the gave up 3 runs total. Gausman faced LAD 3x and gave up 5 runs in 14 innings. None of that means anything.
Exact Prediction: 4-3 LAD