MLB Preview - 10/8
Had a nice start so far, let’s see if it will continue into the first full day of postseason ball. That was a pretty tough loss on CHW/HOU. They went 3-16 with RISP and had a ton of opportunities to get the 1 extra run I needed there. At some point today, I realized BOS might not score against TBR in this series. That dip in the TBR ML was a great buying opportunity for the ML and I couldn’t pass it up. I put a “TBR to sweep +400” in my pocket this afternoon too. I think that could be ugly.
The Results:
NYY/BOS u8.5 +101 - W
STL/LAD u7.5 -104 - W
CHW/HOU o7.5 -113 - L
BOS/TBR o8 +103 - L
TBR ML -145 - 2u - W
Yesterday: 1-2-0 -0.13u
YTD: 3-2-0 +1.88u, ROI: 26.59%
The Game:
CHW (Giolito) +109 @ HOU (Valdez) -128 t8
The Play: HOU ML f5 -113 (tie is a push)
The Side: I think HOU has a bit of advantage here early in the game. HOU doesn’t strike out and Giolito probably needs the K’s to limit the damage. I think Valdez should be able to hold down the CHW offense, but I don’t want HOU for the game at -128 or to need to rely on the HOU pen.
The Total: I made this 8.5, so it’s close enough that I’m not playing it. With the pen usage being closer to optimal for the under, I usually take 5-10% off the projected totals.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter:
Giolito threw a gem against HOU in mid-July. It means nothing. Valdez threw a couple nice starts against CHW over the summer. They mean nothing.
Exact Prediction:
I’m pretty split on this game. I think I’ll take CHW 4-3, but with HOU winning the first 5 somehow. I think it’s HOU in 4, but not sure when CHW will take a game. This is their best shot.
The Game:
ATL (Morton) +122 @ MIL (Burnes) -132 t7
The Play: ATL ML +122
The Side: My numbers make ATL a short favorite. I was skeptical, but here’s my logic for why I trust it. ATL is better vs RHP. They’ll hopefully stack the lineup with lefties Pederson and Rosario in the OF, Riley’s 2021 breakout has been fueled by his performance vs RHP, and Freeman’s a force in the middle of the lineup vs RHP. I’m pretty far out on the MIL offense. They’re 37th and 44th in OPS vs RHP and LHP, respectively. Willy Adames and Avisail Garcia are the only bats that move the needle for me. Wong and Urias can do occasional damage, but there’s a real bats advantage here for ATL. I think ATL can hit Burnes. Morton has been fantastic with a 2.71 ERA since August 1. He’s got a 81-16 HR-BB and a 2.64 FIP over that time. The ATL pen is a concern, but I think they at least won’t lose it. The MIL pen gets downgraded a good bit with Williams and Cousins out. Regardless, their fate here lies on Burnes. If ATL gets to him, it’s probably over regardless of who comes out of the pen. And if ATL has a lead early in the game, MIL isn’t burning the real pen arms.
The Total: I made this between 7 and 7.5. As I said previously, I think my numbers usually come in high for playoff games as there’s more pen usage toward run suppression that isn’t accounted for. I’m ok with 7 here.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter:
ATL hit Burnes the one time they faced him back on July 30. Riley hit a HR and Joc Pederson went 3-5. I’m not look at it as predictive, but if ATL wins, that’s probably the recipe offensively. Morton allowed 2 runs in 6 innings the one time he faced MIL on August 1. Willy Adames took him deep.
Exact Prediction:
For ATL to win, they’ll probably need to get a couple off of Burnes and then a couple off the pen, so I’m thinking 4-2.
The Game: BOS (Sale) +136 @ TBR (Baz) -148 t7.5
The Play: BOS/TBR f5 u4 -119
The Side: My numbers like BOS here, but I couldn’t bring myself to play it. I don’t think I have TBR’s run prevention modelled right and if I adjust it down a bit, it pulls the line to where it’s at here. I can’t back BOS. I don’t think they have a chance of putting up runs.
The Total: I made this around 8.2 before adjustment. Once I adjust the TBR run prevention, it’s pretty close to around the 7.5 or under it. I think the play here is the f5 under. I think Baz will be great and Sale should be able to keep this under 4. TBR isn’t great because they can score a ton, they’re great because they can keep runs off the board and score enough. I can see this being like 2-0 after 5.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter:
None of this matters. Nothing matters.
Exact Prediction: I think TBR wins a low scoring game here, but the BOS pen still gives up a few runs. 4-0 TBR. We’re headed for a sweep.
The Game: LAD (Buehler) -115 @ SFG (Gausman) +107 t7
The Play: Enjoy the Game
The Side: I made this LAD -110. I don’t see an edge here.
The Total: I made it 7.5, but with the change in pen usage, 7 makes sense.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter: I’m not even looking at how these teams played each other previously. None of it matters.
Exact Prediction: I mean. Who knows. SFG 4-3? sure. Should be a great game.