Took down a tight winner on NYY/BOS. Wasn’t quite how I expected, but it got home regardless. Should have another winning in the STL/LAD under, but stranger things have happened….
The Games:
CHW (Lynn) +120 @ HOU (McCullers) -130 t7.5
BOS (Rodriguez) +145 @ TBR (McClanahan) -159 t8
The Plays:
CHW/HOU o7.5 -113
BOS/TBR o8 +103
Playoff Record:
Yesterday: 1-0-0 +1.01u
YTD: 1-0-0 +1.01u, ROI: 98.53%
CHW/HOU
The Side: I made this HOU -118, so I don’t see any value here. maybe a slight edge to CHW +120, but not enough for me to play it.
The Total: I made this total around 8.5. I think this line overvalues both starting pitchers (or undervalues the offenses). Seems like it makes the starting pitchers to be about 20% better than what I do given the offenses they’re facing. If CHW can get to McCullers, they can get into the soft part of the HOU pen. I think Lynn could struggle with the HOU bats and their lack of strikeouts. Lynn is a high WHIP guy anyway and if HOU doesn’t give him outs, there’s going to be traffic. Hamari is in the top 20% in missing calls to the strike side, so there could be a bigger zone here than usual. Doesn’t help the total, but in that small park, I think there could be runs here regardless.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter:
Lynn faced HOU once this season and gave up 6 runs in 4 innings. Correa took him deep and Altuve and Brantley had good nights. McCullers faced CHW twice and gave up 3 runs in 13 innings. It doesn’t mean much though. Both teams are very different now than when those starts took place.
BOS/TBR
The Side: I made this TBR -145, so there’s nothing here for me. As I said in the series preview, I believe my numbers undervalue TBR due to their lineup options, defense, and bullpen usage, so -160 might be a bargain here and I wouldn’t know it. I’d believe it though. TBR is ridiculous in how they stack every advantage in their favor.
The Total: I made this about 8.9. I think E-Rod could throw a clunker here and I believe the BOS bats are always good for 2-3 runs. If E-Rod gets knocked out early, then the BOS pen gets exposed and this could get ugly. Boston doesn’t play great defense, so there might be a few extra outs. Dan Bellino is behind the plate here. He was in the top 20% of umpires whose errors leaned to the ball side, so there might be some help for the over from him.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter:
McClanahan gave up 5 runs in 16 innings across 3 starts vs BOS this season with 18Ks and 5 walks. E-Rod started 4x vs TBR and gave up 11 runs in 21 IP. Both are fine, but I don’t think either is dominant in this spot.
Exact Predictions:
I have HOU maybe 7-4 and TBR 9-2 or so. Seems like we’re due for some games to get out of hand. I’m basically backing the HOU bats and fading the BOS pen.