MLB Preview - 10/11
That was a pretty wild day of ball.
The Results:
HOU ML +108 - L
HOU/CHW o8.5 +102 - 2u - W
Yesterday: 1-1-0 +1.04u
YTD: 6-6-1 +1.61u, ROI: 8.41%
The Game: MIL (Peralta) +101 @ ATL (Anderson) -111 t8
The Play: None.
The Side: I made this game even at -105 each, so this is a no play for me at this number. I’d play MIL if it got up to +120 or so, but that would be a pretty significant move. Generally, I see this as MIL has the better starter and pen, but ATL has the better offense, and they both offset each other pretty equally.
The Total: This came out at 4.07 to 4.12, so I have no play at 8. At a 7.5 -110, I’d be on it, but, once again, a pretty significant move.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter:
Peralta faced ATL back on May 15; Anderson faced MIL on May 16. Both were good. It doesn’t matter. These teams are very different now.
Exact Prediction: I like the Braves in a higher scoring game here, maybe 6-4.
The Game: SFG (Wood) +182 @ LAD (Scherzer) -200 t7
The Play: SFG/LAD o7 -112 - 2u
The Side: I see a bit of value in SFG ML here, but it’s not enough that I’d play it. I’d imagine this line will keep going in LAD’s direction too with Dodgers name on the front of the jersey and Scherzer on the back. If this gets to +200, then I’m probably in. This line makes Scherzer into even more of an ace than he already is. Usually aces are priced to allow around 70% of the opposing team’s usual offensive production. This line prices him to allow around 49%. He’s great, but he’s not that great.
The Total: I think this is the better way to play this. My numbers imply that both starters are overrated here (max more than wood though). I have this total around 8.2, so the 7 is an easy over play. The line might also be underrating both offenses. Both are pretty fantastic and I think they’re undervalued given this line.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter:
Alex Wood faced LAD 3x giving up 9 runs in 17IP. It doesn’t mean a whole lot, but I got my eye on it. Also, Chris Taylor hit 3 HRs off of Wood this season. I guess it doesn’t matter, but I’m sure the BvP stats will be mentioned. Max didn’t face SFG.
Exact Prediction: I got LAD 7-3.
There are two other games on Monday and neither have lines yet. If I have plays, I’ll post them to twitter. Should be a great day tomorrow.