MLB Preview - 10/10
Had a good day today. The NL games kept the scores low early and the rest didn’t matter (thankfully in LAD/SFG). I generally think the NL games will trend this way as the SPs are better than the pens and the offenses aren’t able to string together extended rallies. I may go back to that well again.
The Results:
ATL/MIL f5 u4 -117 - W
LAD/SFG f5 u4 -122 - W
Yesterday: 2-0-0 +2u
YTD: 5-5-1 +0.57u, ROI: 3.58%
The Game: BOS (Eovaldi) -108 @ TBR (Rasmussen) -102 t8.5
The Play: None.
The Side: I made this BOS -110 so it’s close enough that I’m not on a side. I do believe TBR has the pen advantage, but I’m not going to go against my numbers to back them.
The Total: I made the total 8.8, so I don’t see anything there. Especially with how quick the hooks will be when trouble starts to come for these pitchers.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter:
Eovaldi was a mixed bag against TBR this season with 3 really good starts and one blow up. Rasmussen started 3x vs TBR giving up 1 run in each outing. He was fine. Eovaldi was fine. Everything is fine.
Exact Prediction: I guess I believe in Rasmussen and the TBR pen to take this down. 5-2 TBR.
The Game: CHW (Cease) -116 @ HOU (Garcia) +106 t8.5
The Play: HOU ML +108, HOU/CHW o8.5 +102
The Side: I made HOU a favorite here. This whole thing comes down to Dylan Cease. Maybe I should be more of a believer, but I’m looking at a guy with a 3.91 ERA (albeit, 3.41 FIP) and a 1.25 WHIP. I was trying to pinpoint why it is that I’m not on him. His strike out rate went up, his walk rate went down, HR rate went down, BABIP is higher than is should be, line drive rate down, hard hit rate down, all these things I like. I think it’s this - his opponents faced this year were really weak. He had 32 starts this year, 23 of which were against teams that had a record under .500. In the starts against bad teams, he had a 3.12 ERA; in his 9 starts against good teams, his ERA was 6.04. Cease needs his K’s and this HOU team doesn’t strikeout. I think Cease could get hammered by HOU.
The Total: I made this total about 9.2. It’s enough for me to get on it. My numbers make Garcia a little worse than the line as well, but not horribly so. I think Garcia might get hit a bit here. I don’t think it’ll be as bad as Cease, but I think Garcia can give up a few runs and get pulled earlier than wanted. The CHW bats hit better at home. Call it a bit of a hedge on the HOU ML, but I think this game could have some runs.
I’ll Say It Even If It Doesn’t Matter: Cease gave up 9 runs in 9 innings in 2 starts against HOU. Garcia gave up 1 run in 7 innings against CHW in June. These things really done matter.
Exact Prediction: I’ll take HOU 8-5.