AL Bullpen Review
I think bullpens are generally underrated when it comes to assessing the lines for a given game. Knowing which pitchers are available, which aren’t and which the manager is likely to use in certain situations can provide a decent edge. I’m going to walk through the AL pens in this post and the NL pens next. The primary factor I use in assessing pens is K%, K/BB, BB% and K% - BB%. Basically I start with wanting pens that don’t need contact to get outs and don’t allow free baserunners. Then I look at OPS+ against. When contact is made, is it effective contact? The OAK pen was #1 in 2020 with a bullet. They were tied for the top K%-BB% in MLB at 17% with LAD, but OAK allowed a 74 OPS+ and LAD was at 93. I also assess depth. The top 3 are important, but in today’s MLB you need to go 5-6 deep in the pen to be really dominant. There are some RPs who managers won’t throw two days in a row, they definitely avoid throwing almost any RP three days in a row. If a pen has 5-6 arms I can trust, then it doesn’t really matter a ton what the usage has been like lately. If they only have 2-3, then we need to take a look at the last few days to see what RPs might be taking a night off. I’m going to do this in alphabetical order and then we’ll summarize at the end.
BAL - Baltimore has no arms I can believe in. Tanner Scott, Paul Fry, and Cole Sluser are probably the top 3 arms. If BAL had a starter who could throw a strong 7 innings, I could believe Scott and Fry could get 6 outs. It’s not an impossible top 3, but it’s not what you want. These three should be the 4-6 guys in a good pen. They’re far from a lockdown 3. The next 3 in that pen are TBD. BAL is going to give up a TON of runs this season, so the pen will be coming in games early and getting hit around consistently. No under will be safe with this pen. This pen basically makes BAL a one-way team to the over. Grade: F
BOS - The Sox top 3 is probably Ottavino, Barnes, and Hernandez. It’s a decent group. All guys with good K/BB and a decent track history. I’m not staying off of BOS because of their existence. The next 3 are probably Andriese, Sawamura, and Brasier (when healthy). IMO, Andriese is serviceable, the other two are problems. I think Andriese is the bridge to the back end of the pen, but if any of those back 3 are out due to usage, it’ll stretch Andriese and then if he’s out the next day, things could get really ugly if a starter gets in trouble. That’s the opportunity I’m looking for here to exploit this pen in-season. I trust Ottavino and Andriese with my leads here. Grade: C
CHW - This is a pen I want to be involved with. The top 3 is Hendricks, Bummer, Marshall. All of them are really good. The next 3 is Crochet, Heuer, and Foster. Who are all also very good. Then they also have Michael Kopech in this pen, you know, just in case. It’s an embarrassment of riches. With this pen, I’m ok with betting on CHW ML or to the under if the bats aren’t hitting. Grade: A+
CLE - The top 3 are Karinchak, Wittgren, and Clase. This is in a bit of flux as to the usage. CLE apparently might use Karinchak in non-save situations. Regardless, these 3 arms will nail down leads pretty consistently. If a starter can go 6 and these guys are rested, it should be a W. The next 3 are Maton, Shaw, and Perez I think. Quantrill is also involved who is ok. This pen is very good and can hold most leads, but isn’t world beating. With CLE’s bats, their rotation and this pen, this might be a straight under team. Grade: B+
DET - This one’s a bit of a total guess. The top 3 looks like Soto, Garcia, and Jimenez. maybe. I don’t want to be involved at all with that group. They might be ok, I guess, but I have no desire to need to rely on them. The next 3 are Farmer, Cisnero, and Norris? It’s a total disaster if these 3 need to get involved. And they will because their rotation will get in trouble early in games. This is a situation similar to BAL. There will be games where they’re throwing their 5-6-7-8th best pitchers in the 3rd or 4th inning of a game and things will completely unwind. Foreseeing those situations will be beneficial. Grade: F
HOU - This is an odd one. I think the top 3 they want is Pressley, Baez, Parades, but Baez is down with CV currently and Josh James should probably be back in the pen by May. The next 3 are supposedly Taylor, Smith, and Raley with Ryne Stanek nearby. These are above average pen options from a K/BB and OPS against standpoint. They also might have Garcia and Abreu available and possibly others if Framber Valdez, Austin Pruitt, or Andre Scrubb can get healthy. They have a TON of options for mid and late game situations. None of these options are really elite though. Pressley is strong but he’s not dominant. The same is true for most of these arms. This HOU pen is almost a great non-factor in a game. They’re good but not great and also don’t have a catastrophic option available. If they get involved, great. If they don’t and the starter can go, that’s great too since the pen isn’t a totally great option. I’ll probably be betting on HOU a good bit if I think their bats are going to hit. Grade: A
KCR - This is about as flat as a bullpen hierarchy as there is in MLB. The gap between the top 3 and the next 3 is pretty narrow. The top 3 currently looks like Holland, Staumont, Barlow. The next 3 is Hahn, Zimmer, Davis. Jake Junis is there for long-relief situations. Personally, I’m a believer in Hahn. He showed real improvement last season giving up 1 run in 17 innings with a K/BB of 19/8. All 6 of those RPs are guys I think can be solid for them this season. Even Junis has supposedly added a cutter that they believe will be a difference maker. I’m good with backing KC regardless of which RPs are available on a given night, but none of these RPs are dominant. This team’s performance will have a lot more to do with the bats than the arms in my opinion. The arms are solid and consistent top to bottom, so the bat status will decide the betting options, but I can’t see them getting involved in many shootouts. Grade: B+
LAA - If we had a “most improved award,” it might go to LAA The top 3 here are Iglesias, Mayers, and Buttrey, all of which are solid but not the guys you want necessarily. The next 3 are Guerra, Claudio, and Slegers who are all guys I don’t like. Felix Pena is also around when he’s healthy for long-relief type roles. This is a pen to monitor for availability. Iglesias isn’t a guy that usually goes two days in a row. On nights he’s not available this pen gets worse. On nights Mayers or Buttrey also aren’t available, it gets ugly. If the top half of this pen isn’t available, LAA should be a total fade. Grade: B-
MIN - This MIN pen actually inspired this post because I hadn’t realized how much I liked their arms. The top 3 are Colome, Rogers, and Duffey who are all very good. The next 3 are Stashak, Thielbar, and Robles who can also be relied on to get outs most nights. MIN also has Dobnak waiting to be used in long relief spots. All of these guys are solid to great and I’m very comfortable with this pen. There probably isn’t a usage pattern that would give me pause. Grade: A
NYY - The top 3 here are Chapman, Green, and O’Day. The next 3 appear to be Loaisiga, Cessa, and Nelson? Britton will be back soon to become the #2 man for the 8th inning. NYY was a middling pen last year. They’re definitely one I’m monitoring for usage especially while Britton’s out. Grade: B-
OAK - I really like this pen. The top 3 is Rosenthal, Diekman, and Romo. The next 3 are Trivino, Wendelken, and Kolarek with Petit available for long relief spots. There isn’t an arm there that I want to bet against. OAK has a crew of starters who can get leads to this pen and this pen can lock them down. I’ll be betting on OAK or under a lot this season. Grade: A+
SEA - There is nothing here. It looks like the top 3 are Montero, Graveman, and Misiewicz. I guess. The next 3 are supposedly Sadler, Middleton and Swanson. They’ll also have the loser of the amazing Dunn/Margevicius 6th starter battle available for long relief spots. I want nothing to do with this pen. Montero and Middleton could string together a few getting innings, but overall, there’s a lot of blown saves here. I’ll be playing against SEA or to the over this season. Grade: D+
TBR - This pen is stupid. I’m not even going to attempt to list out who they have. All the arms are good. All 8 of them. The next 6 waiting in the minors or currently on the injured list are good too. They lost Nick Anderson and aren’t much worse because of it. It’s ridiculous and it’s the best pen in MLB. Grade: A++
TEX - There’s no definition to this pen at all. They just lost LeClerc. I think Ian Kennedy probably gets saves? There’s nothing good about this pen. TEX is a pure bet against team this season. Grade: F
TOR - They just lost Yates for the season, so there’s little indication as to what we’re looking at here. I’m guessing the top 3 is or will be Romano, Dolis, and Phelps and the next 3 might be Merryweather, Chatwood, and Borucki? Maybe? They have Thornton available for the long relief spots. IMO, this pen is trouble. None of these guys are blowing me away with the K/BB or OPS+ against, and none have a huge track record of MLB success to suggest they can overcome it. Overall, I’m fading TOR a bit this season and this pen isn’t stopping me. Also, there will be days where the TOR rotation gets shelled early in games and if this pen gets involved in the 3rd or 4th, the runs probably aren’t stopping and then you’ll get the back end of the pen all game once they’re playing from behind. There could be nights where the TOR bats are so good that the pen doesn’t matter, but they’ll probably need a margin for error to take games to the finish line. Grade: C-
AL Recap:
Dominant pens:
TBR A++
OAK A+
CHW A+
Safe Pens:
MIN A
HOU A
KCR B+
CLE B+
Pens to Monitor:
NYY B-
LAA B-
BOS C
Pens I don’t want to be involved with:
TOR C-
SEA D+
TEX F
BAL F
DET F